azGlobalContext.org, Toronto-based Media and Analysis Center, Canada
azglobalcontext.org (Canada)
24 February, 2017
(post's parts published in 2011 but key findings still relevant for the region' political landscape)
original source: Journal of Central Asia and the South Caucasus, 2011, Vol 12, Issue 1, Stockholm, Sweden, www.ca-c.org; http://www.ca-c.org/journal/2011-01-eng/05.shtml
It is well known that within the dozen centuries the South Caucasus had a strategic importance for superpowers which dominated in different historical periods. As a start of superpowers’ struggle and paramount evidence of their attempts to secure interests in this strategic part of the world, we can recall the Roman Army advances under command of General Pompey (66-65 BC) and General Mark Antony (36 BC) to the Caucasus. And in 75 AD, Roman Emperor Domitian has sent the legion of XII Fulminata to support the allied kingdoms of Iberia and Albania (modern Republics of Georgia and Azerbaijan respectively). A rock inscription was found near the shores of the Caspian Sea (Gobustan, 60-70 km from Baku, Republic of Azerbaijan) mentions the presence of Legio XII Fulminata's centurio named Lucius Julius Maximus (1; 2).
The region’s strategic dimensions
The contemporary politics of the South Caucasus is characterized by the high level of complexity as well as dynamic rivalry between global, regional and local players. Concerning to the region’s landscape, one can emphasize that the United States, Islamic world and European countries present global powers; Russia, Turkey and Iran are key regional actors; and finally, as local actors, one can indicate Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia. In addition, a huge pool of influenceable international organizations like OSCE, CIS, EU, NATO, OIC and religious and humanitarian organizations operate and shape politics in this part of the world. Meanwhile, the large family of multi-national oil corporations and companies like BP (UK), Amoco (USA), UNOCAL (USA), McDermott International (USA) and others have their own “pie” in the Caucasus tangle web of oil and politics.
Last, the XXI century’s South Caucasus, like a whole Great Caucasus region, continues to be complex and unassimilated by Russians and occupies a strategic importance for global politics, international security and energy security.
Iran, as mentioned above, is one of the key players in the South Caucasus. And, as within the whole course of history, Iran (Persia) continues to be in the list of powers which struggles for their interests and goals in this region. So, the modern Iran has wide and deep historical experience to play its own strategic game in this part of the world.
Key sources of Iran’s foreign policy
The South Caucasus - is oil and gas rich region with a strategic location that creates brilliant prospects for local nations to be rich and prosperous. However, the Caucasus belongs to “the areas of greatest insecurity in today's world lie along an arc from the Balkans though the Middle East to Central Asia” (12). Unfortunately, the South Caucasus is an arena of hard struggle between global and regional powers for geopolitical influence and to control Caspian energy recourses, as well as energy transportation routes. And Iran engages into this rivalry.
Russia very painfully reacts to the U.S. and NATO “advance” into Kremlin’s “near abroad”, particularly to the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Russia tries to weaken Western influence and presence in this part of the world, as well as to secure Caspian energy resources and energy transportation routes under Moscow’s control.
Nevertheless, Iran develops economic cooperation with local countries and considers state-to-state relations as a valuable “tool” to increase political influence and strengthen strategic positions. In this light, the cooperation between Iran and Armenia (with Russia’s blessing) is an example of such strategy. Undoubtedly, Iran-Armenian cooperation has key implications for the South Caucasus and is an effective approach to contain Turkey’s influence, Turkey-Azerbaijan strategic alliance (21) and rising Azerbaijan’s economic and military power.
Obviously, an improvement of Turkey-Armenian relations will decrease Tehran-Moscow axis’ role and weak the axis’ significance for the region. Moreover, an elimination of Turkey-Armenian hostility will dramatically decrease or undermine Russian dominance in the South Caucasus. So, Turkish-Armenian reconciliation does not correlate to Russian (first) and Iranian (second) strategic interests. And indeed, this process is already deadlocked (22). Moreover, Iran tries to contain Turkey, as NATO’s key member and close US ally, in the Greater Middle East region (23) toward which Iran has its own strategic interests and political goals (20).
Since the Soviet Union’s breakup, we identify two significant shifts in the geopolitical game of the South Caucasus. The first is: - Azerbaijan’s “Contract of the Century” of 1995; and - second, the Russo-Georgian war that broke out in August 2008. From our viewpoint, the first shift led to the second and, so, the event’s consequence indicates that the Russo-Georgian war was unavoidable.
- Counter and reduce US influence;
- Opposes US, NATO and EU current and long-term objectives;
- Contain EU influence and oppose to EU’s strategic initiatives;
- Prevent the deployment of US or NATO military bases;
- Oppose Israeli cooperation with Georgia and Azerbaijan;
- Stop Georgian and Azerbaijani drift toward NATO/EU membership;
- Arrange security order in accordance with Iran’s (and Russia’s) strategic interests;
- Ensure control over Caspian energy resources and their transportation routes;
- Contain rising influence of Turkey and Turkey-Azerbaijan alliance;
- Prolong Turkey-Armenia hostility;
- Oppose to the long-term strategic cooperation in Turkey-Georgia-Azerbaijan triangle;
- Keep strategic balance between Azerbaijan and Armenia and so, contain Azerbaijan’s rise to regional power;
- Support Russia’s leading role in Caucasian and Caspian affairs and so, ensure current "status-quo"
It is necessary to note that bilateral relations with the South Caucasus sates are a priority line in Iran’s foreign policy to deal with border countries. The cooperation with Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia is powerful tool to strengthen Iran’s influence and political significance for local and global actors. The bilateral relation’s expansion could partially compensate Iran’s limited capacity, originates from Tehran’s regime nature, to participate in huge international projects that are currently implemented in the South Caucasus and Caspian basin as well. Moreover, Iran considers state-to-state relations as an effective approach to keep strategic balance between Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia.
Undoubtedly, Iran clearly understands Azerbaijan’s strategic importance and tries to keep “on track” the dialogue with Baku. Tehran significantly intensifies high-level contacts and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad several times paid official visits to Baku to discuss the region’s agenda.
Azerbaijan’s raising power and its long-term cooperation with the USA/EU and Israel is a great concern for Iran. Some experts argue that Iran prefers to see Azerbaijan remain involved in the conflict with Armenia. In this case, as scholars believe, Azerbaijan will be “unattractive for Iran’s Azerbaijanis and unable to allocate resources to stir-up “South Azerbaijan” (33). Iran supports Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, but provides large scale economic assistance to Armenia. Interestingly, Iran, as Shia state, implements so called “double track” policy toward the Republic of Azerbaijan (87% are Shi'a Moslems). Tehran, possibly, considers the “double track” policy as an effective approach to contain the Republic of Azerbaijan which is becoming a new regional power. Moreover, Iran’s decision-makers suppose that Azerbaijan’s involvement in the conflict with Armenia is effective to contain Turkey and Turkey-Azerbaijan strategic alliance that covers energy, transportation, economic, political and military issues.
As the world’s oil and gas dependency is rising, so the safe and regular energy supplies will continue to occupy a high priority in world powers’ strategic agenda. In this light, the export of Caspian energy, it is well-known, is an alternative to the Persian Gulf energy. Within the last 15 years, the West has invested billion dollars to explore, develop and transport Caspian energy bypass Russia, which tries to be only one hub to supply oil and gas from the post-Soviet area to the world market.
1-Legio XII Fulminata: one of the Roman legions. Its name means 'the lightning legion'. http://www.livius.org/le-lh/legio/xii_fulminata.html;
2-Embassy of the Republic of Azerbaijan to the United Kingdom. http://www.azembassy.org.uk/sehife.php?lang=eng&page=0105;
3-Iran Chamber Society. History of Iran, The Persian Wars By: Professor Livio C. Stecchini http://www.iranchamber.com/history/articles/persian_wars3.php
4- Azerbaijan: A quest for identity: A short history: By Charles van der Leeuw; Page 48; Palgrave Macmillan, July 2000, ISBN: 978-0-312-21903-1, ISBN10: 0-312-21903-2, 256 pages; http://us.macmillan.com/azerbaijan-1 ;
5-Azerbaijan: Seven Years of conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, 1994 by Human Rights Watch/Helsinki (Organization: US), 118 pages, page xiii, Copyrights 1994 by Human Rights Watch, Printed in the USA; Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 94-79484, ISBN I-56432-142-8; http://www.paperbackswap.com/Azerbaijan-Seven-Years-Conflict-Nagorno/book/1564321428/
6-Tyler Marshall, 'Caspian Sea: Oil in a Tinderbox', Kansas City Star, 8 March 1998, p. K-6
7-Baku Barons Day, Foreign Investments in Azerbaijan’s Oil, by Mir Yusif Mir-Babayev, Azerbaijan International, Summer 2004, Pages 82-85; http://azer.com/aiweb/categories/magazine/ai122_folder/122_articles/122_foreign_investment.html ;
8- Zbigniew Brzezinski, The Grand Chessboard (Basic Books: New York: 1997);
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13- Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, “Iran’s Role as Mediator in the Nagorno-Karabakh Crisis,” Chapter VII of Contested Borders in the Caucasus, http://poli.vub.ac.be/publi/ContBorders/eng/ch0701.htm
14-Sergey Makkedonov, The Caucasus Approaches of Iran: Main Priorities and Challenges, 01 June 2009, Research Institute for European and American Studies (RIES); www.rieas.gr
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21-Vugar Masimoglu, Turkey-Azerbaijan strategic alliance treaty and Russia-Armenia military agreement: Status-quo in the South Caucasus remains unchanged –Analytics, APA News Agency, 20 August 2010, http://en.apa.az/news.php?id=128191
22-Armen Grigorian, Russian Hegemony and the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Resolution: A Quandary or an Impasse? Caucasus Edition Journal, October 01, 2010, www.caucasusedition.net
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27-Krzysztof Strachota, cooperation with Wojciech Gorecki, The Southern Caucasus and Central Asia after the Russian-Georgian War – the geopolitical consequences, September 24, 2008, Center for eastern Studies, Poland, www.osw.waw.pl
28- Russia extends lease on military base in Armenia through 2044, RIA Novosti, 20 August 2010, http://en.rian.ru/mlitary_news/20100820/160276128.html ;
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36-Marcel de Haas, Current Geostrategy in the South Caucasus, January 06, 2007, Eurasianet.org; http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/pp010707.shtml ;
37- Mina Muradova, Iran Seeks Role in Karabakh Settlement, March 18, 2010, John Hopkins University, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, Analyst, http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/5291
38- Trend News Agency, November 11, 2010, FM: Iran stands ready to play 'significant role' in resolving conflicts in Caucasus, http://en.trend.az/print/1776791.html